Война и котировки оруженйных компаний


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Отправлено Eгор Энгельгардт 16:45:32 31/03/1999
в ответ на: А не предназначались ли выпущенные ракеты к списанию?, отправлено Игорь 15:06:47 31/03/1999

Любопытная динамика котировок акций производителей оружия: 
Локхид (Ф-117) снижается, а Рэйтеон (Томагавк) и Боинг (ф-15 и авиационные крылатые ракеты) растут. 
 
 
 
Fog of War Settles In for Weapons 
Stockholders 
 
By Tim Smart 
Washington Post Staff Writer 
Tuesday, March 30, 1999; Page E01 
 
Since the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Americans have come to expect instant 
gratification from military action, both on the battlefield and in their 
stock 
portfolios. 
 
Shares of the nation's biggest defense contractors typically have rallied 
whenever cruise missiles and F-16 fighter jets took to the skies in 
televised 
battles. Soon after bombs began falling in Iraq, Bosnia and now 
Yugoslavia, the stock prices of Boeing Co., Raytheon Co. and General 
Dynamics Corp. of Falls Church moved up. 
 
Last week, General Dynamics led the defense gainers, posting a 2.73 
percent rise in its stock price Wednesday, the day of the initial bombing 
raids. It was followed by Raytheon, up 1.8 percent for the day; Lockheed 
Martin Corp. of Bethesda, up 0.97 percent; Boeing, up 0.55 percent; and 
Northrop Grumman Corp., up 0.2 percent. 
 
But the run-up was short-lived, with most defense stocks backing off later 
in the week. Only Raytheon and General Dynamics have held on to their 
gains: Raytheon closed at $57.37 1/2, unchanged, while General Dynamics 
closed up $2 at $64.75, yesterday as the Dow ended the day above 
10,000. 
 
Some Wall Street observers believe this fickle mood for defense stocks 
might reflect that the action in Kosovo will not be the quick military fix 
that 
Americans in recent years have become conditioned to expect. 
 
"The initial run-up has sort of faded," said Peter Aseritis, defense and 
aerospace analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston. "The market is looking at 
this as perhaps more open-ended and difficult." 
 
Boeing is well represented in the current attack, with its F-15 fighter and 
air-launched cruise missile. Raytheon's Tomahawk missile has become the 
weapon of choice in Pentagon aerial assaults. General Dynamics, primarily 
a supplier of submarines to the Navy and tanks to the Army, has not had a 
major role in the current campaign. 
 
Indeed, the White House yesterday had to deny plans to send ground 
forces into action, despite reports of massive killing of ethnic Albanians 
in 
and around Kosovo. 
 
"The Serbs have fought over Kosovo for 600 years," Aseritis added. 
"What difference does six more days or six more years make?" 
 
The market also may be sending cautionary signals after the downing 
Saturday night of an F-117A Nighthawk stealth fighter by Yugoslavia. The 
fighter, built by Lockheed, is designed to offer little "signature" to enemy 
radar, but the downed plane may have been hit by one of the Serbs' 
Russian-built surface-to-air missiles or by machine-gun fire. 
 
Similarly, although cruise missiles made by both Raytheon and Boeing have 
proved successful against fixed targets inside Iraq and now Yugoslavia, it 
remains to be seen whether high-tech weaponry alone can dislodge 
intransigent leaders such as Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Yugoslav 
President Slobodan Milosevic. 
 
The stock prices of big defense firms may also be responding to other 
forces, such as a restructuring at Raytheon that has garnered the 
enthusiasm of Wall Street. General Dynamics stock has been affected 
more by its bid for Newport News Shipbuilding Inc. than by the military 
campaign. 
 
And Lockheed must grapple with much-publicized problems in its 
theater-wide antimissile weapon. The ground-based interceptor failed to hit 
its target for the sixth consecutive time Sunday. Consequently, Lockheed 
may have to pay the government $15 million in penalties, which will cut its 
quarterly earnings. 
 
Some analysts say the long-term benefit to investors will come not from a 
victory on the battlefield but from a change in attitude by Washington 
politicians. Defense companies must persuade Congress to approve higher 
defense budgets. 
 
"You have to have a sea change, something that makes it look like we are 
going to spend more on defense than we are already assuming," said Paul 
Nisbet, an analyst with JSA Research Inc. in Newport, R.I. 
 
"I think the major holders of these stocks are looking for long-term value. 
don't think any events that would be likely to come out of this war would 
have much effect on these stocks," Nisbet added. 
 
The paltry performance of major defense stocks relative to the overall 
market weighs heavily on the industry's top executives, as many receive a 
large portion of their compensation in the form of stock options and grants. 
 
Last year was no exception. A prospectus released last week showed that 
Lockheed chairman and chief executive Vance D. Coffman received a 
grant of 220,000 options at a price of $52 a share — well above the recent 
trading range of about $38 a share. That came on top of Coffman's 1998 
salary and bonus of $2,343,750, a 17 percent raise from the $1,999,744 
he was paid in 1997. He became chairman in 1998. 
 
President and Chief Operating Officer Peter B. Teets was paid 
$1,431,250 in salary and bonus in 1998, an increase of 12 percent from 
$1,280,231 in 1997. 
 
General Dynamics Chairman and Chief Executive Nicholas D. Chabraja 
received options covering $166,000 shares, at an exercise price of 
$43.22. The stock has traded recently at about $60 a share or better. 
Chabraja also received a salary and bonus of $2.1 million, an increase of 
35 percent over the $1.55 million he was paid in 1997. 
 
A Mixed Reaction 
 
Share prices of Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, General Dynamics 
and Northrop Grumman all rose after the bombing of Yugoslavia was 
announced but two stocks have retreated since then. 
 
Percent change 
 
Lockheed Martin 
 
Tues.-Wed. 1.0% 
 
Tues.-yesterday -0.5% 
 
Boeing 
 
Tues.-Wed. 0.6% 
 
Tues.-yesterday 1.8% 
 
Raytheon (Class A) 
 
Tues.-Wed. 1.8% 
 
Tues.-yesterday 3.6% 
 
General Dynamics 
 
Tues.-Wed. 2.7% 
 
Tues.-yesterday 4.9% 
 
Northrop Grumman 
 
Tues.-Wed. 0.2% 
 
Tues.-yesterday -1.4% 
 
SOURCE: Bloomberg News


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